I am writing this column the morning of the 2018 general election, so I have no idea what was going to happen. But I can make some general speculations about things. I am going to pull out my magic eight ball and make some guesses.
First, the Legislature will likely have eight or more women in 2019, so the majority will be women.
I use a classic and simple method for post-primary placement. All else equal, usually the top five vote-getters in each party at the primary are selected at the general election. This means Democrats Therese Terlaje, Telena Nelson, Joe San Agustin, Régine Biscoe Lee and Tina Muna-Barnes will be elected. On the Republican side, the top five at the primary election included James Moylan, Wil Castro, Mary Torres, Louise Muna and Amanda Blas.
Thus, seven of the top 10 were women, just one more woman would need to be selected from the remaining five. Those are pretty good odds. If we continued and took the sixth names, Amanda Shelton and Telo Taitague should make it, which would bring nine women out of the top 12. This very well could happen. The remaining three are always turbulent and if the blessing of media work holds, Clynt Ridgell and Julius Santos might be well-positioned.
Second, the attorney general's race has been quite dynamic in the last week. I think it may be very close, within 5 points. There are a number of good contrasts in this race. A former AG versus a newcomer. A very experienced attorney versus a younger attorney. There was also a strong contrast made regarding views of federal policy. This was a fun race to watch.
Third, the delegate race is also very interesting. My big question is, will loyalists of Del. Madeleine Bordallo vote against Michael San Nicolas? This kind of behavior is hard to track with polling. If this race is within 2 to 3 points, this likely could have happened.
Fourth, there is the governor's race. I have looked at the write-in rate for this election. The write-in votes could have a range of 10 to 12 percent. In general, the write-in number has not even been in the parking lot of the ballpark in terms of being an actual or viable effort. Given these points, I think there's a 50-50 chance a runoff would be required. So the government finance obsessive-compulsive personalities will waste a $500,000 on a runoff election. This is nearly double the cost of the pay raises they were quacking about a few years ago.
Finally, we should discard primaries on Guam. Simply go to a general election format with a runoff every four years for governor. If we eliminated the primaries, we could make a firm qualifying process and also eliminate write-ins. Also, we could send out ballots and confirm results more quickly.