As of last night, 99W still had not yet organized into a substantial system, which means Guam and the Marianas likely won’t be facing a typhoon tonight or tomorrow.

However, the National Weather Service continues to monitor the disturbance and has issued a small craft advisory and a flood watch for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert on Wednesday. The alert means a tropical cyclone is possible within the next 24 hours.

The disturbance, which is northwest of Chuuk and moving towards Guam and the Marianas, was still in its formative stages last night with multiple circulation systems - making it difficult to pinpoint a center, said Landon Aydlett, National Weather Service Guam meteorologist at Wednesday’s heavy weather briefing.

He said while they do expect the circulation to organize and strengthen, there’s “too little time and space for it to get itself developed and form into something more significant” by the time it makes its closest point of approach to Guam.

“Worst case scenario we’re looking at a low-end tropical storm. Certainly not a typhoon,” he said.

Aydlett said Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands will start to see conditions deteriorate today.

“We will see thunderstorms and gusty winds across Guam on Thursday into Friday,” he said, adding that by Saturday weather conditions will improve.

Jenna Blas, Guam Homeland Security/Civil Defense spokesperson, said that as of Wednesday afternoon there were no plans to open shelters. Additionally, the Department of Public Works was standing by to address flooding issues. 

Flood watch

NWS expects the system to dump several inches, particularly on the islands north of Guam.

A flood watch is in effect this morning through tomorrow afternoon for Rota, Guam, Tinian, and Saipan.

Heavy showers and thunderstorms associated with the tropical disturbance will bring:

• 3 to 5 inches of rain for Tinian and Saipan;

• 2 to 4 inches of rain is possible for Rota; and

• Guam is looking at 1 to 3 inches of rain.

Small craft advisory 

Winds of 15 to 25 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph, kicking up seas to 6 to 9 feet are expected.

NWS issued a small craft advisory for coastal waters of Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan from 6 a.m. to midnight today.

Marine conditions will be hazardous to small crafts, NWS stated, adding that inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

Rip currents 

NWS noted the inexperienced swimmers may also want to stay out of the water today as dangerous rip currents are expected on east-facing reefs around Guam and the Mariana islands. 

Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Officials said if you're caught in a rip current, do not swim against the current. Swim in a direction following the shoreline, then head for the beach when out of the current. 

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